TORC

The College of Cardinals assembling to elect Pope Francis

This week’s Papal election carries some important decision-making lessons.

In essence, the job of the conclave was to make a choice between the 115 Cardinals present – any of whom, in theory, could have been chosen.

No doubt, the range & diversity of candidates made for deep deliberation. Yet, the whole thing was done and dusted in little more than 24 hours.

Moreover, Pope Francis, had not been considered one of the favorites – being ranked only 9^th by the bookies, with odds of 20/1.

So, all in all, the college of Cardinals surprised the pundits with the speed and reach of their decision-making – using a multi-voting process that has stood the test of time, since 1621 at least.

This process allows for one ballot to be taken on day 1 and four ballots on each of days 2 & 3, of the conclave.

Then, one-day adjournments are mandated between any subsequent bouts of seven ballots.

If after 34 ballots, there is no clear-cut winner (ie. a single name holding two-thirds support of the College), then a run-off between the top two names is mandated in a final ballot.

In the workplace, variants of this process can be similarly exploited to maximise the efficiency of team decision-making.

The better known examples would be: the Nominal Group Technique (NGT) and the Deplhi Method.

NGT starts with a round-robin process where each team member publicly nominates and clarifies an option to be considered.

NGT then asks all members to rank their individual preferences for the various options nominated.

These weighted preferences are toted to produce a consolidated ranking for the team.

A second round of rankings, restricted maybe to the top ranking 30-60% from the first round, is then held and the process is continued through multiple rounds, as necessary, until a clear winner emerges.

The Deplhi Method is broadly similar, except the nomination part is skipped – to ensure absolute anonymity on each member’s position is established from the start.

Instead, nominations are received by balloting members, in confidence, to produce an initial ranking, based on the number of nominations each option receives.

As in the case of NGT, further rounds of balloting then ensue – again possibly, restricting each subsequent ballot to the top ranking 30-60%  from the preceding round, until as before, a clear winner emerges.

The first documented account of NGT is found in the Journal of Applied Behavioural Science from 1971.

The Delphi Method dates from a little earlier – apparently, having been invented as a forecasting tool by the US Military in their efforts to come to grips with the Cold War.

Sidney Lumet’s 12 Angry Men, also dating from the 1950’s, provides another variant on the use of voting to drive team consensus.

Here, the setting is the jury room and the challenge posed is to come up with an unanimous decision: guilty or not guilty.

The jury got there in 96 minutes with 5 rounds of balloting – coincidentally, the same number as used in this week’s conclave.

PS. For related decision-making tips, please click on the following links:
1. Decision-Making: New iPhone Apps
2. Decision-making: types, tips & traps
3. Choosing between a rock & a hard place
4. Problem-solving: forensic style
5. Prejudice, emotion & bias